Is a recession around the corner?

A senior investment analyst at Quantum Advisory has warned that Brexit uncertainty and slow economic growth could push the country back into a recession.

Stefano Carnevale spoke in front of more than 50 pension and investment specialists at Quantum Advisory’s latest industry update seminar, Pensions for Breakfast. The quarterly event took place on 13 November at the Celtic Manor Twenty Ten Clubhouse and attracted professionals from across South Wales and the South West. Stefano also highlighted the impact of trade wars and uncertainty on economic activity.

Stefano said: “There’s no denying, trade wars are taking their toll across the world. The 2019 Global GDP growth is forecast at 3%, which is the slowest since 2008-9 when the financial crisis hit, interest rates are declining, there’s a manufacturing recession happening in Europe and there’s a possibility that the fiscal stimulus might increase. At home, we have the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit, an upcoming General Election which is highly unpredictable, and a fragmented UK electorate, all of which is making the Sterling weak and volatile and ultimately impairing the country’s growth outlook.

“Despite this doom and gloom, the majority of market commentators are still reassuring investors, given that recession fears have subdued recently. However, the accumulation of geopolitical risks could easily amplify these concerns once again over the coming months, so it is yet to be seen if we are enduring a stalling recovery or in fact on the brink of recession.”

Quantum Advisory’s Senior Consultant and Actuary, Rachael Mills, gave her insight into the management of the Pensions Regulator and the Pension Protection Fund, as well as talking about trusteeship and governance of schemes and the effect of the election on the Pensions Bill. Aled Edwards, Partner and Actuary at Quantum, addressed the audience about the next, long term phase of defined benefit (DB) funding which could potentially involve higher liabilities and deficits.

Stuart Price, Partner and Actuary at Quantum Advisory, said of the event: “The fact we are continually attracting an audience of fifty or more industry professionals to our Pensions for Breakfast seminars shows the calibre of our key speakers, and I thank Aled, Rachael and Stefano for their insightful presentations.

“We continually monitor what is going on, not only in the pensions sector, but the wider economy and then share our knowledge and advice with our attendees. It’s also a great chance to network and meet like-minded people.”

Quantum’s next Pensions for Breakfast event will take place 25 March 2020, once again at the Celtic Manor Twenty Ten Clubhouse. To book your place now, email Eleni.Dowsell@quantumadvisory.co.uk.

Quantum Advisory has offices in Amersham, Birmingham, Bristol, Cardiff, and London and provides pension and employee benefits services to employers, scheme trustees and members.

For more information about Quantum Advisory, please visit: https://quantumadvisory.co.uk.